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New Delhi, April 19, 2011
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today forecast a normal south-west monsoon for the country in 2011.
"IMD's long range forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA))," the forecast, released by Union Minister for Science and Technology and Earth Science Pawan Kumar Bansal at a press conference here, said.
"There is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of the LPA)," it said.
According to IMD, quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall was likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm, it said.
IMD will update the forecast in June as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.
Forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second of the season (August + September) will be issued in July and that for September will be issued in August.