Deep depression over Arabian Sea likely to intensify into cyclone, reach near Gujarat coast on May 18 morning

New Delhi, May 14, 2021

The deep depression over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast and eastcentral Arabian Sea is very likely to intensify into a cylconic storm and reach near Gujarat coast by the morning of May 18, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.

In a bulletin issued at 2030 hours today, the IMD said the depression had moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 11 kmph during the past six hours, and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today near latitude 11.6°N and longitude 72.6°E, about 55 km north-northwest of Amini Divi, 290 km west-southwest of Kannur (Kerala), and 1060 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat).

"It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move northnorthwestwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning," the bulletin said.

According to it, light to moderate rainfall was very likely at most places over Lakshadweep on May 14, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with extremely heavy falls (20 cm or more) at isolated places. There was likely to be heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on May 15 and and heavy falls at isolated places on May 16.

The bulletin said that, in Kerala, light to moderate rainfall was likely at most places, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (20 cm or more) at isolated places on May 14; heavy to very heavy falls at a places on May 15; and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on May 16 and 17.

In Tamil Nadu, there is very likely to be light to moderate rainfall at many place on May 14, with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places; and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on May 15.

In coastal and adjoining Ghat districtss of Karnataka, there is likely to be light to moderate rainfall at most places on May 14 and 15, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few paces with extremely heavy falls at isolated places. There could be heavy falls at isolated places on May 16.

In Konkan and Goa, the IMD forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places on May 14, with heavy falls at isolated places. There could be heavy to very heavy falls over north Konkan on May 15 and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on May 16.

The bulletin said there would be very likely light to moderate rainfall at many places on May 16, with heavy falls at isolated places over coastal districts of Saurashtra in Gujarat. There would be rainfall at most places on May 17 with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places; and heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra and Kutch on May 18.

The IMD also foecast light to moderate rainfall at many places over south Rajasthan on May 17 and 18, with heavy falls at isolated places.

The bulltin said squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, is very likely over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean on May 14.

"It is likely to increase gradually becoming gale wind speed reaching 70 – 80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph, over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area from 15th May morning," it said.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, is likely along and off Kerala on May 14 and 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, along and off Kerala - Karnataka coasts on May 15.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, is likely along and off south Maharashtra and Goa coasts on May 15 and gale winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph, gusting to 80 kmph, along and off south Maharashtra costs on May 16.

Squally wind, with speed reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, is likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along and off south Gujarat and Daman & Diu coasts on May 17 morning and will gradually increase, becoming gale winds with speed reaching 90-100 kmph, gusting to 115 kmph, over northeast Arabian Sea along and off Gujarat coast from the early hours of May and increase gradually thereafter till May 18 morning.

According to the bulletin, sea conditions over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep - Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean will be rough to very rough on May 14. Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be high to very high on May 15 and 16 and over northeast Arabian Sea from May 17.

Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along and off Kerala coast on May 14 and 15, very rough to high over east central Arabian Sea along and off Karnataka coast on May 15 and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on May15 and 16.

It is very likely to be very rough to high over northeast Arabian Sea along and off south Gujarat coast from May 17 morning and very high to phenomenal from May 18 morning.

Tidal wave of about 1 metre height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low-lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands on May 15 and 16. 15th& 16th May.

The bulletin advised fishermen not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till May 18.

Those who are out at sea over north & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

The bulletin warned of the possibility of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall causing flash floods and landslides in the coastal districts of Kerala, Karnataka and Goa during May 14-16 and Saurashtra and Kutch during May 18-19.

"Thunder squalls & lightning could cause adverse impact on human & livestock as well as damage to loose & unsecured structures along the coast line," it added.

NNN