Cyclone Tauktae likely to cross Gujarat coast early in the morning of May 18
New Delhi, May 16, 2021
The very severe cyclonic storm "Tauktae" (pronounced as Tau'Te), over eastcentral Arabian Sea is very likely to intensify further during the next 24 hours and cross the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva in Bhavnagar district, early in the morning of Tuesday, May 18.
In a cyclone alert issued at 1200 hours today for the Gujarat and Diu coasts, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Tauktae had moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during the past six hours and lay centred at 0830 hours today near latitude 15.3°N and longitude 72.7°E, about 120 km west-southwest of Panjim, Goa, 420 km south of Mumbai, 660 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 810 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).
"It is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move northnorthwestwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) around 18th May early morning," the bulletin said.
The bulletin said that light to moderate rainfall would occur at many places over Kerala today, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places. There are also likely to be heavy falls at isolated places tomorrow.
In the coastal and adjoining Ghat districts of Karnataka, the bulletin forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places today, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places.
In the South Konkan and Goa regions, it forecast light to moderate rainfall today, with with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places. There could be heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places tomorrow.
According to the bulletin, there could be light to moderate rainfall at most places in North Konkan today, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on May 16 and 17.
The bulletin said that, in Gujarat, light to moderate rainfall was very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from today afternoon. There could be heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Diu and southern most Gujarat region tomorrow, with extremely heavy falls at isolated places. There could be heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu & south Gujarat region on May 18, with extremely heavy falls (20 cm or more) at isolated places.
There could also be light to moderate rainfall at many places over south Rajasthan on May 18 with heavy to very heavy falls and extremely heavy falls at isolated places. There could also be heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on May 19.
According to the bulletin, gale wind, with speed reaching 130–140 kmph, gusting to 155 kmph, is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea, becoming 145-155 kmph, gusting to 170 kmph from around midnight tonight.
Gale winds with speed reaching 80-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, are likely along and off south Maharashtra – Goa and adjoining Karnataka coasts today; 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, along and off north Maharashtra coast today. It is likely to become 65-75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, along & off north Maharashtra coast from tomorrow till the morning of May 18.
Squally winds, with speed reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, were likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along and off south Gujarat and Daman & Diu coasts from today morning. They will gradually increase becoming gale winds, with speed reaching 150-160 kmph, gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along and off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar) and 100 -120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmedabad, Botad, Surendranagar, and 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi districts of Gujarat from early hours of May 18.
Gale winds, with speed reaching 70-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, are likely to prevail along and off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Kheda districts from midnight tomorrow till the morning of May 18.
The bulletin said sea conditions over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to phenomenal today and northeast Arabian Sea tomorrow and day after.
Sea conditions will be very rough to high along and off Maharashtra–Goa coasts today and along and off north Maharashtra coast tomorrow morning. They are very likely to be very rough to high along and off south Gujarat coast from tomorrow morning and very high to phenomenal from around midnight tomorrow.
The bulletin said tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:
about 3 m over Junagarh, 1-2.5 m inn Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Anand, Surat and about 0.5-1m in Devbhoomi Dwarka , Jamnagar, Porbandar, Kutch and the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.
The bulletin called for total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along and off Karnataka-Goa–Maharashtra coasts and total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from May 17.
Fishermen were advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along and off Karnataka coast till tomorrow morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along and off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along and off Gujarat coast till May 18.
Those who are out at sea in north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.
The bulletin also warned of the possible damages that could be expected in various areas:
(A) Damage Expected over Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:
Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops. Blowing down of bushy trees.
Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
Visibility severely affected.
(B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surart, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat:
Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
Minor damage to power and communication lines.
Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
Major damage to coastal crops.
Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
The bulletin called for evacuation of people in vulnerable areas and judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. It advised people to remain indoors in such areas and warned that movement in motor boats and small ships would be unsafe.