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Cyclone Tauktae likely to cross Gujarat coast on May 18 afternoon
New Delhi, May 15, 2021
Cyclone Tauktae, over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area, is likely to intensify and cross the Gujarat coast, between Porbandar and Naliya, around the afternoon or evening of May 18, Tuesday.
A bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) at 1430 hours today said the cyclone had moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 13 kmph during the past six hours and lay centred at 1130 hours IST near latitude 13.2°N and longitude 72.5°E, about 290 km southwest of Panjim-Goa, 650 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 880 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 980 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).
"It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 3 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move northnorthwestwards and reach Gujarat coast in the morning of 18th and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Naliya around 18th May afternoon/ evening," it said.
According to it, light to moderate rainfall was very likely at most places over Lakshadweep today, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places, and heavy falls at isolated places tomorrow.
The bulletin said that, in Kerala, light to moderate rainfall was likely at most places on May 15, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places tomorrow and the day after.
In Tamil Nadu's ghat districts, there would be light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places today.
In the coastal and adjoining ghat districts of Karnataka, there would be light to moderate rainfall at most places today, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places, and heavy falls at isolated places tomorrow.
In Konkan and Goa, the IMD forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places on May 15, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over south Konkan & Goa and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Konkan. There will also be heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places tomorrow and heavy falls at isolated places on May 17.
In Gujarat, light to moderate rainfall is very likely to commence at many places over coastal districts of Saurashtra from tomorrow afternoon.
There will be rainfall at many places over Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu on May 17, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places. There is likely to be extremely heavy falls at isolated places in Junagarh and Gir Somnath distrcts on May 17.
There is also likely to be heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu, with extremely heavy falls (20 cm or more) at isolated places of Porbandar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar andtch districts on May 18.
In West Rajasthan, there is verylikely to be light to moderate rainfall at many places on May 18-19, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places.
The bulletin said squally weather, with wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, is very likely over the Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean during next six hours.
Gale wind speed reaching 80-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, is prevailing over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea, becoming 120-130 kmph, gusting to 145 kmph, from tomorrow morning.
Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, is likely along and off Kerala-Karnataka coasts today.
Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, is likely along and off south Maharashtra & Goa coasts today. Tomorrow, there could be gale winds, with speed reaching 60-70 kmph, gusting to 80 kmph along and off Maharashtra-Goa coasts tomorrow.
The bulletin said squally wind with speed reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, is likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along and off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts on May 17 morning. It will gradually increase, becoming gale winds, with speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph, over northeast Arabian Sea from May 18 morning and along and off Saurashtra & Kutch coasts (Devbhumi Dwarka & Porbandar) and 120 -150 kmph, gusting to 165 kmph, over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh and Jamnagar districts of Gujarat from May 18 afternoon/evening for subsequent six hours.
According to the bulletin, sea conditions will be very rough over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep - Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean during the next six hours.
Sea conditions over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be high to very high today and very high to phenomental tomorrow and over northeast Arabian Sea on May 17-18.
Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along and off Kerala coast today, very rough to high over east central Arabian Sea along and off Karnataka coast today and Maharashtra – Goa coasts today and tomorrow.
They are very likely to be very rough to high over northeast Arabian Sea along and off south Gujarat coast from May 17 morning and very high to phenomenal from May 18 morning, it said.
"Tidal wave of about 2- 3 m above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas of Morbi, Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka & Jamnagar districts and 1-2 meters along Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar and 0.5 to 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall," the bulletin said.
The bulletin called for total suspension of fishing operations in the area during this period.
Fishermen were advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along and off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along and off Gujarat coast till May 18.
Those who are out at sea in north Arabian Sea were advised to return to the coast.
The bulletin said the cyclone could destroy thatched houses and cause extensive damage to kutcha houses and some damage to pucca houses in Devbhumi Dwarka, Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh and Jamnagar districts of Gujarat. There will be potential threat from flying objects.
There could also be bending and uprooting of power and communication poles, damage to roads, flooding of escape routes, and disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems. There could be widespread damage to salt pans and standing crops and blowing down of bushy trees. Small boats and country crafts may get detached from moorings.
Minor damage is also likely in Amreli, Gir Somnath, Rajkot and Morbi districts of Gujarat, it said.
The bulletinn called for evacuation of people from coastal areas and judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in the affected areas were advised to remain indoors during this period.