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New Delhi, June 2, 2020
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today said cyclone Nisarga over the Arabian Sea was very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 12 hours and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts during the afternoon tomorrow.
In a bulletin issued at 1600 hours today, the IMD said Nisarga had moved northwards with a speed of 13 kmph during the past six hours, and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today over Eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 16.0°N and longitude 71.2°E, about 290 km westnorthwest of Panjim (Goa), 380 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 600 km southsouthwest of Surat (Gujarat).
"It is very likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards during next few hours, recurve north-northeastwards thereafter and cross north Maharashtra and adjoining south Gujarat coast between Harihareshwar and Daman, close to Alibag (Raigad District, Maharashtra) during the afternoon of 03rd June as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph," the bulletin said.
According to it, light to moderate rainfall was very likely at most places over Konkan and Goa during the next 24 hours, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places.
It said light to moderate rainfall was also very likely over coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada during the next 24 hours, with isolated heavy falls.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places was very likely over north Konkan (Mumbai, Palgar, Thane, Raigad districts) and north Madhya Maharashtra tomorrow, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (20 cm or more in 24 hours) at isolated places.
The bulletin said light to moderate rainfall was likely over south Konkan (Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts, Goa, south Gujarat region (Valsad, Navsari, Dangs and Surat districts), Daman and Dadra & Nagar Haveli on June 3, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places.
Light to moderate rainfall was likely at most places over west Madhya Pradesh on June 3, with heavy falls at isolated places, it said.
The bulletin warned that squally wind, speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph, is prevailing over Eastcentral Arabian Sea. It will gradually increase, becoming gale wind, speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph, over eastcentral Arabian Sea off south Maharashtra and Goa coasts from today evening and further becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over eastcentral Arabian Sea along and off Maharashtra (Raigad, Mumbai, Palghar, Thane) coast from tomorrow morning.
Gale wind, speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph, is likely along and off Valsad and Navsari districts of Gujarat, Daman and along and off northeast Arabian Sea, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg districts of Maharashtra and 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph along and off Surat and Bharuch districts of south Gujarat and Dadra & Nagar Haveli from tomorrow noon.
Squally wind, speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph, is likely to prevail over northeast Arabian Sea along and off remaining districts of south Gujarat coast tomorrow, it said.
Squally wind, speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph, is likely prevail over eastcentral Arabian Sea along and off Karnataka-Goa coasts during the next 24 hours.
The bulletin said the sea condition is very rough to high over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It will become high to very high over Eastcentral Arabian Sea along and off Maharashtra and Goa coasts from today evening till tomorrow evening.
The sea condition is very likely to be very rough to high over northeast Arabian Sea along and off south Gujarat coast tomorrow.
According to the bulletin, storm surge of about 1-2 metres height above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low-lying areas of Mumbai, Thane and Raigad districts and 0.5-1 metre height above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of Ratnagiri district during the time of landfall.
The IMD advised fishermen not to venture into Eastcentral and Northeast Arabian Sea and along and off Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts till tomorrow.
The cyclone is expected to cause major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off and unattached metal sheets may fly off, it said.
There could be damage to power and communication lines, major damage to "kutcha" and some damage to "pucca" roads as well as flooding of escape routes. Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees, and damage to banana and papaya trees are likely.
The bulletin said there could be major damage to coastal crops, and damage to embankments/ salt pans.
The bulletin called for total suspension of fishing operations, evacuation of people from low-lying areas and judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas were advised to remain indoors. Movement in motor boats and small ships is unsafe, it added.