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New Delhi, May 20, 2020
Super cyclone Amphan over the Bay of Bengal is expected to slightly weaken and cross the West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts between this afternoon and evening as an extremely severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The IMD said Amphan, pronounced as Um-Pun, had moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 29 kmph during past six hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm over Northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 20.6°N and longitude 88.0°E, about 140 km east-northeast of Paradip (Odisha), 125 km south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal), 125 km nearly south of Sagar Island and 275 km west-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
The current intensity near the centre of the cyclone was 160-170 kmph gusting to 190 kmph.
"It is very likely to move north-northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during afternoon to evening hours of today, the 20th May 2020 with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph," the bulletin said.
The landfall process will commence from today afternoon. After landfall the system is likely to move north-northeastwards close to Kolkata.
The system is now being continuously tracked by the Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), Paradip (Odisha) and Gopalpur (Odisha).
Heavy to very heavy rainfall has occurred at isolated places over north coastal districts of Odisha and heavy rainfall over coastal West Bengal during the past 24 hours. Gale wind, speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph, prevailed along and off north coastal Odisha districts and 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph prevailed along and off south coastal Odisha, the IMD said.
According to the bulletin, heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over north coastal Odisha (Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Kendrapara and Keonjhargarh districts) with isolated heavy falls over Jagatsinghpur district today.
In West Bengal, rainfall will occur at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining districts) today and isolated heavy rain over interior districts tomorrow.
Light to moderate rainfall is expected at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Malda and Dinajpur districts today, and over most of the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim tomorrow.
Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western districts of Assam and Meghalaya tomorrow.
The bulletin said gale wind, speed reaching 90 to 100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph, is prevailing along and off Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts of Odisha and squally wind speed reaching 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing along and off remaining coastal districts of Odisha (Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur) today.
It will gradually increase becoming 100 to 110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph along and off the above-mentioned districts of North Odisha during forenoon to afternoon today.
Gale wind, speed reaching 80 to 90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph, is prevailing along and off West Bengal coast (East & West Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts).
Gale wind, speed reaching 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph, is very likely along and off East Medinipur and North & South 24 Parganas districts and 110-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah and West Medinipur districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall (20th afternoon to night), it said.
In the deep sea area, according to the bulletin, gale wind, speed reaching 165-175 gusting to 195 kmph, is prevailing over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal. Gale wind, speed reaching 150-160 gusting to 175 kmph, is prevailing over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal. It will gradually decrease becoming 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph over North Bay of Bengal during the evening hours of today.
The sea condition is phenomenal and is very likely to continue for the next six hours over westcentral Bay of Bengal and for the next 12 hours over northwest Bay of Bengal.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours. Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during the next 24 hours.
Storm surge of about 4-5 meters above astronomical tide is likely to inundate low-lying areas of South & North 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low-lying areas of East Medinipur district of West Bengal during the time of landfall.
The IMD said extensive damage was expected to all types of "kutcha" houses and some damage to old, badly managed "pucca" structures in East Medinipur, South and North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli and Kolkata districts. There is potential threat from flying objects, it said.
It also warned of the possibility of extensive uprooting of communication and power poles, disruption of rail/road links at several places, extensive damage to standing crops, plantations and orchards, blowing down of palm and coconut trees and uprooting of large bushy trees. Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.
The bulletin called for total suspension of fishing operations during this period and diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
People in the affected areas must remain indoors. Authorities should mobilise evacuation of people from low-lying areas. Movement in motor boats and small ships is not advisable, it said.
The bulletin also warned of the possibility of similar damage, though on a lesser scale, in Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur and Mayurbhanj districts of Odisha.
According to the bulletin, after the landfall the system is very likely to continue to move north-northeastwards, across Gangetic West Bengal and Bangladesh and weaken gradually. It is likely to maintain the intensity of a cyclonic storm till tomorrow morning and thereafter it will weaken into a deep depression over Bangladesh.
Under its influence gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph likely over interior districts (Murshidabad and Nadia) of Gangetic West Bengal between tonight and tomorrow morning.