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Above-normal summer temperatures likely over north, northwest and northeast India: IMD
New Delhi, March 2, 2021
During the coming hot weather season from March to May, above normal seasonal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the north, northwest and northeast India, some parts of eastern and western and central India and a few coastal sub-divisions of north peninsular India.
However, below normal seasonal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the sub-divisions of the southern peninsula and adjoining central India, according to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Above normal seasonal minimum temperatures are likely over most of the sub-divisions of north India along the foothills of the Himalayas, Northeast India, the western part of central India and the southern part of peninsular India, a press release from IMD said.
However, below-normal season minimum temperatures are likely over most of the sub-divisions of the eastern part of central India and a few subdivisions of extreme northern parts of the country, it said.
Since 2016, IMD has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks for sub-division scale temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model developed under the monsoon mission project, launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
IMD has now prepared a seasonal outlook for the sub-division averaged temperatures for the upcoming summer season (March to May 2021).
The MMCFS has a spatial resolution of about 38 km and improved modules of model physics. The model climatology was prepared based on retrospective forecasts for 16 years (2003-2018).
The seasonal temperature forecast outlook was prepared using MMCFS simulations based on the 2021 February initial conditions. The forecast was prepared using 31 ensemble member forecasts. The model hindcasts and forecasts were bias-corrected using the probability distribution function (pdf) method. The model hindcasts show moderate skill over many subdivisions over northwest and central India during the period 2003-2018.
The probability forecast for maximum temperatures indicates above normal maximum temperatures over most of the sub-divisions of north, northwest and northeast India, few sub-divisions of eastern (Chhattisgarh and Odisha) and western (Gujarat region and Saurashtra & Kutch) parts of central India, and a few coastal sub-divisions (Konkan & Goa and Coastal Andhra Pradesh) of north peninsular India.
However, most of the sub-divisions of south peninsular India and adjoining central India are likely to experience below normal maximum temperatures, the release said.
The probability forecast for minimum temperatures indicates that above normal minimum temperature is likely over most of the sub-divisions of north India along the foothills of the Himalayas, Northeast India, the western part of central India and southern parts of peninsular India. Most of the sub-divisions of east and adjoining central India and a few sub-divisions of the extreme northern part of the country are likely to experience below normal minimum temperatures.
At present, moderate La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below normal over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to sustain during the hot weather season (March to May).
IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7-day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks) of maximum and minimum temperatures over the country updated every week. This is based on the Multi-modal ensemble dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System currently operational at IMD, New Delhi.