Gold demand in India up 14% at 191.7 tonnes in Q3 of 2022
Mumbai, November 1, 2022
Demand for gold in India in the third quarter (Q3) of 2022 was 14% up at 197.7 tonnes (t) as compared to the overall Q3 demand for 2021 at 168t, even as a strong third quarter lifted worldwide gold demand to pre-pandemic levels.
The World Gold Council’s (WGC) latest Gold Demand Trends (GDT) report showed that gold demand (excluding OTC) in the third quarter of 2022 hit 1,181t, up 28% year-on-year.
"Strong demand pushed the year-to-date total to its pre-COVID levels. Gold demand was bolstered by consumers and central banks, although there was a notable contraction in investment demand," a press release from the WGC said.
According to the council, India’s Q3 2022 gold demand value was Rs 85,010 crores, up by 19% as compared to Q3 2021 (Rs 71,630 crores).
Total jewellery demand in India for Q3 2022 increased by 17% at 146.2t as compared to Q3 2021 (125.1t). The value of jewellery demand was Rs 64,860 crore, up by 22% from Q3 2021 (Rs. 53,330 crores).
Total investment demand in India for Q3 2022 at 45.4t increased by 6% in comparison to Q3 2021 (42.9t). In value terms, gold Investment demand in Q3 2022 was Rs. 20,150 crore, up by 10% from Q3 2021 (Rs. 18,300 crore).
Total gold recycled in India in Q3 2022 was 16t, down by 23% compared to 20.7t in Q3 2021.
Somasundaram PR, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council said: “India's total gold demand in Q3 2022 at 191.7 tonnes is a 14% increase over last year. This reflects better-than-expected performance and strong consumer interest, helping year-to-date demand return to pre-covid levels.
"Credit expansion added impetus to this demand, with bank loan growth touching a nine-year high by quarter-end. Recovery in gold jewellery demand was primarily driven by urban India, more specifically Southern parts, underpinned by robust economic activities with a 17% y-o-y increase in tonnage terms. Rural demand however, was impacted by seasonal effect (monsoons) and inflation. On the other hand, Indian bar and coin demand also saw a 6% y-o-y improvement to 45.4 tonnes as retail investors responded to gold price drop and weaker equity markets, and festivities around Ganpati and Puja festivals after two years of COVID, saw a huge uplift in consumer sentiment," he said.
"Looking ahead, Indian retail investment is likely to continue to benefit from safe-haven demand amid rising interest rates and a weaking rupee. There’s optimism in overall outlook for the rest of the year with weddings and Diwali demand in Q4, but it is unlikely to match last year’s record-breaking Q4. Our gold demand estimate for full year is around 750-800 tonnes similar to last year," he added.
The report said that, worldwide, investment was down 47% year-on-year, as ETF investors responded to a challenging combination of markedly higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227t.
These movements, alongside weakness in OTC demand and negative sentiment in futures markets, hampered gold’s price performance – contributing to an 8% quarter-on-quarter drop in the price during Q3 2022.
"Despite these headwinds, gold continued to hold favour with retail investors who reacted to different market cues and turned to gold for its status as a store of value amidst rampant inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors sought to hedge inflation with bar and coin investment, driving total retail demand up 36% y-o-y. This was supported by significant purchasing in Turkey (up more than fivefold y-o-y) and in Germany (up 25% y-o-y at 42t), but also from visible contributions across all major markets.
"Jewellery consumption continued to rebound and is now back to pre-pandemic levels, reaching 523t – 10% higher compared to Q3 2021. Much of this growth was spearheaded by India’s urban consumers who drove up demand 17% y-o-y to 146t. Similarly impressive growth was also seen in much of the Middle East, with Saudi Arabian jewellery consumption up 20% since Q3 2021, and United Arab Emirates up 30% for the same period. Chinese jewellery demand also saw a modest 5% increase y-o-y driven by improved consumer confidence and a dip in the local gold price, prompting the release of some pent-up demand," the report said.
"Just as consumer gold demand firmed, central bank buying picked up significantly with estimated record purchases of nearly 400t in the third quarter. This pattern reflects insights from our recent central bank survey, in which 25% of respondents said they intended to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months," it said.
Turning to supply, mine production (net of hedging) was up 2% versus Q3 2021, with gold mining seeing its sixth consecutive quarter of growth. By contrast, recycling was 6% lower y-o-y in Q3, as consumers held onto their gold in the face of surging inflation and an uncertain economic outlook.
Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council commented: “Despite a shaky macroeconomic environment, demand this year has reflected gold’s status as a safe haven asset, underscored by the fact that it has outperformed most asset classes in 2022.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate central bank buying and retail investment to remain strong and that could help offset potential declines in OTC and ETF investment that may prevail if the dollar strength persists. We also expect to see jewellery demand continue to perform strongly in some regions such as India and Southeast Asia, while the technology sector will likely witness further decline in the face of economic deceleration.”
The Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022 report, which includes comprehensive data provided by Metals Focus, can be viewed here.