Covid impact: India's FY21 GDP expected to contract by 7.7%

Covid impact: India's FY21 GDP expected to contract by 7.7%

New Delhi, January 7, 2021

India's First Advance Estimate of national income on Thursday showed a contraction of 7.7 per cent in real GDP for FY 21. On a year-on-year basis, Asia's third largest economy had grown by 4.2 per cent in 2019-20.

"Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, released on May 31, 2020," the First Advance Estimates of National Income for financial year 2020-21 said.

"The growth in real GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -7.7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20," it added.

As per the estimate, real GVA at basic prices is estimated at Rs 123.39 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against Rs 133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.2 per cent.

"With a view to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, certain restrictions were imposed from March 25, 2020. Though the restrictions have been gradually lifted, there has been an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms," the National Statistical Office (NSO) said.

In terms of sectors, the estimates showed that GVA at basic prices by economic activity at 2011-12 prices showed a contraction in trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting; financial, real estate and professional services; and public administration, defence and other services at (-)21.4 per cent, (-)0.8 per cent and (-)3.7 per cent, respectively.

The growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining and quarrying; manufacturing and construction is estimated to be 3.4 per cent, (-)12.4 per cent, (-)9.4 per cent and (-)12.6 percent, respectively.

The GVA at basic prices for 2019-20 from electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services sector is expected to grow by 2.7 per cent.


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